Foresight Analysis for Policymaking in International Relations

Can policymakers really anticipate the future? As uncertainty defines today’s global politics, Jonatan von Moltke explores the rise of foresight analysis as a tool for strategic governance. He examines how methods like horizon scanning, scenario mapping, and megatrend analysis can help governments prepare for disruptive change - and weighs their promise against the risks of overconfidence, methodological limits, and political short-termism.