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The Green Transition in the Western Balkans
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The 2026 CBAM implementation confronts the Western Balkans with a fundamental paradox: coal-dependent economies face €1.2bn in annual costs yet lack carbon pricing systems.
Can regulatory constraint catalyse modernisation?
Three pathways emerge: national carbon pricing (€2.8bn revenue 2026-30), ETS integration with free allocations (€10-20bn), and renewable valorisation. Success requires EU support, political will, and geopolitical coherence to prevent Chinese/Russian influence.
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