Climate Linked Instability in the Sahel and Horn

How does climate stress reshape patterns of authority and instability in high-risk African states? Using Burkina Faso and Somalia, the brief shows that climate shocks amplify existing governance weaknesses, alter mobility, and expand the space for non-state armed actors. Climate change is a multiplier: instability emerges not from climate stress alone, but from how it aligns with already fragile institutions.